2-Minute Read
Count luck, coach performance.
Does luck exist in sport? Yes, clearly. By luck I mean a factor outside our control that influences the outcome. Professional preparation aims to minimise its impact. The goal is to perform at the highest possible stable level and be successful.
Luck is the residue of good design.” – Branch Rickey
The more you believe that your effort affects the outcome, the more motivated you are to fight for it. That’s why it is surprising to hear coaches say “we had no luck”. A detailed performance evaluation gives a clear picture of what you can change to leave less room for luck next time – a great learning opportunity for staff and athletes alike. Real luck works like heads or tails in a coin toss: the more often it occurs, the more it evens out. You should collect “lucky” and “unlucky” cases from our own perspective over a longer period and analyse them; for example, if certain phases of matches show more of one type, we’ve likely found a blind spot.
What we know from research:
How much luck contributes to results varies by sport (other distorting factors, such as referee involvement, will be the topic of another post). Tennis rankings truly reflect performance, while in ice hockey luck plays a much bigger role. Analyses suggest that as the season progresses, the role of luck becomes smaller and differences in quality emerge more clearly.
In short:
- Performance and success are not identical, even in sport.
- When you talk to your athletes about luck, do it as specifically as possible in the given situation to use the learning and motivational opportunity (immediately after a match is too early, even to the media).
Tip: when facing a stronger opponent, by creating less controllable situations or by reducing the number of opportunities, you could give luck more room.
Related: Mental trainer on your staff
If you have a question or are considering working together, feel free to get in touch.